Pre-market September 30, 2025

Overnight Developments:

Indexes declined on Monday September 29, 2025 on looming fears of a government shutdown. In focus is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and employment figures which will be delayed if we shut down. Other concerns include delayed data gathering for the next BLS reports.

Economic Releases:

“Home price inflation continues to trend down. Case-Shiller index is seen up 1.7 percent on year in July versus 2.1 percent in June and 4.1 percent in May. The index is expected down 0.2 percent on the month, seasonally adjusted.” – Econoday

“Home values affect much in the economy – especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.” – Econoday

Actions:

The Case-Shiller Index (C-SI) offers valuable insights into economic conditions as they pertain to the housing and consumer sectors. We will monitor performance charts for home builders, raw material suppliers, and mortgage lenders. Minor changes in the C-SI are unlikely to result in substantial movement within consumer sectors; however, if interest rates fall significantly and home sales/new construction rise markedly, we expect suppliers of household items to benefit accordingly. Should a trading opportunity present itself under these circumstances, we will pursue it.

Consumer confidence was came in under expectations. The indexes/futures were down slightly pre-release. As of 10:51 am ET the Dow is down 0.25% with SP500 and Nasdaq flat at -0.09 and 0.0. A lack of reaction to the release indicates markets were expecting a lower number.

Oil and gas prices are declining which are positive. The impending shutdown, main-stream media and internet videos of clashes at ICE facilities, deployment of federal troops to crime ridden cities has many consumers feeling uneasy. Also mentioned in the news recently has been FICO’s plans to add Buy now Pay later (BNPL) to credit reports. We are still unsure how these will be reported and its affects on consumer credit, but for many, it wont be beneficial.

Actions:

The lack of significant reaction to the consumer confidence number leads me to think many are on the sidelines. If they’re in positions, they are watching their tickers. If they aren’t in an positions, I do not see any eagerness to buy. Wait until we have clarity from Washington or clarity from participants to guide our next decisions.

Earnings this morning:

Today we will be watching PAYX. PAYX had significant price action on volume, we can expect to see movement as portfolios are repositioned based on the new fundamentals. The remaining premarket reports were either insignificant and lacked actionable price-action or volume.

The small cap stocks on our list are too small for any institutional ownership, which means we have to rely on retail traders to drive price.

Today’s Pre-market Movers

PAYX: reported earnings this morning. Reported $1.22 beating expectations of 1.209. Guidance must’ve come in light.

pre-market:

PAYX Daily

CRWV: Announced a $14b deal with META. This is very bullish and we expect to see some long setups.

Daily

Additional Notes and Thoughts:

Today is starting off rather slow and directionless on the indexes. A lack of news flow and a possible shut down means today may not be very exciting, or rife with opportunities. I’ll sit back and watch until the fat pitch comes.

I took CRWV long in premarket, took an easy $1.50 long breakout scalp over $135.50, but closed as we approached the open.