Post-market September 30, 2025

Indexes finished in the green today after a morning of choppiness.

Dow +0.18%
SP500 +0.41%
NSDQ +0.30%

Trading Economics

The charts above show very minimal impact of the Cases-Shiller index and the Consumer Confidence release. Traders and investors either expected numbers roughly in-line with forecasts or they sat out of the markets due to uncertainty.

I think we wont see substantially broad market activity until the shutdown becomes inevitable or we have a resolution.

Regarding the shut down, the senate democrats are demanding healthcare funding for illegals – which is sad because we have veterans and citizens in this country who cannot afford healthcare but are being overlooked by democrat leadership. These “democrat leaders” in government are ignoring their own constituents.

With that said, Republicans have 219 of the 218 required votes in the House. The Senate requires supermajority of 60 votes. Republican control 53 Senate seats. This assumes there are no RINO’s in the House which will prevent any funding bill from even reaching the Senate.

Charts and Trades

Breaking news trade on Zillow (Z).

FTC Sues Zillow and Redfin Over Illegal Agreement to Suppress Rental Advertising Competition

Z was in short territory from the get go, having sold off from a peak of 93.88 on 9/17. We had 6 consecutive red days, small retracement off an even smaller support zone. Price meandered around prior day lows at 79.00. The green candle prior to the news breaking pushed up against the 79 whole figure before collapsing.

I missed the breaking news trade, but I entered short as it started to roll over – with about 30 minutes to close, price acceptance was the not what I wanted. I closed the trade for even.

Danaher Corp (DHR) was incredible clean with no news to speak of. No significant technical setup that I see, but none the less, being long from the opening range break with a stop under LoD would have been exceptionally profitable.

MERCK (MRK) Released positive phase 3 results on their experimental drug Winrevair which significantly reduces the risk of clinical worsening events by 76% in adults with pulminary arterial hypertension. Headlines sound promising. We’ll have to look into the actual numbers to determine if these are statistics or damn statistics. We know big pharma likes to use relative risk measures to make a drug appear more effective than it actually is.

MRK has many low risk entry points with the liquidity needed for large size and high conviction and if it doesn’t work, the liquidity to get out.

Pfizer (PFE) announced a deal with the Whitehouse regarding drug-pricing deal. Pundits suggest this will have a minimal effect on future revenues and earnings, but it will alleviate government pressure on the pharm giant.

Similar to MRK, this also had some very nice trades with minimal risk and the liquidity to have very large size.

DELL Technologies (DELL) was strong off the open with a rather subdued premarket. 7:15 AM ET, Goldman increases price target to 155 from 150.

At 9AM Dell announces a new PowerEdge Server for Open RAN* and Cloud RAN deployments which have significant cost savings, performance, scalability, and a lower total cost of ownership (TCO)

*Open Radio Access Network (ORAN) is a nonproprietary version of the Radio Access Network (RAN) system that allows interoperation between cellular network equipment provided by different vendors.

DELL provided a nice rally off the open:

Break over premarket highs with a stop at low of day.
Midday continuation play with a stop under 137.50, or a tighter 138.50. Depends on how aggressive you choose to be.

Eli Lilly (LLY) – today was strong for big pharma!

LLY had no news today, but positive news for PFE and MRK lead the sector into gains and pulled LLY into a nice midday rally.

This would also be a midday continuation with a long over 10am highs of 737.12 with a conservative stop of 726.40 or a more aggressive stop of 734.50. The volume on these two candles is very welcomed.

Two shorts I liked today:

Ablemarle Corp (ALB) – selling off with the lithium sector.

We saw a strong move last week in sympathy with Lithium Americas, but this week hasnt been so good for the lithium company. Midday Chile’s environmental regulator is fining ALB though the news was after a significant sell off starting yesterday morning proceeding a gap higher into Monday’s open.

Two trades:

Premarket into the open, a short under premarket lows of 85.75 with a stop around 86.62. We had very minimal volume – 2500 shrs – so I do not think that was on anyone’s mind.

Second Trade was on a retracement to VWAP. When price broke down against VWAP, the short was entered with a stop around 83.10. The 10:00 am candle high was 83.07 and VWAP was 83.07.

MGM Resorts Intl (MGM)

MGM didnt have any news, but that didn’t stop them from having a clean breakdown. Easy entry as the price breaks down through the opening range, also as a flattop, ascending triangle. Enter short at 36.40 and exit over HOD at 36.60.